January 9, 2024

2023 forecast(ing) review

State of the platforms

Manifold

It sucks. But I managed to make a profit this year anyway.

The profit plot.

I stopped seriously participating several months ago, and only did the bare minimum to get the daily incentive for a while. Then I got bored, liquidated my portfolio, and donated everything I could. I continue to be baffled by the enthusiasm this site has generated.

Kalshi

… is somehow still around? I predicted their imminent demise last year, but I guess they still have some gas. I mostly ignored Kalshi all this year, then managed to jump into a clearly-mispriced covid market and make $10. Kalshi is weird like that; once in a while something good will turn up, but you may have to wade through a lot of boring crap to find it.

Metaculus

The Ukraine tournament is going well so far.

Not bad.

But I expect my rank to fall because there are a few yet-to-be-resolved questions I completely dropped the ball on. Which is to say, I forgot to update my predictions. This is your annual reminder that doing well on Metaculus is 20% common sense and 80% obsessive updating.

I feel like it was a fairly quiet year, but I did have one really big win.

Link to the question.

In terms of Metaculus points, this was my best question of all time. A great prediction, and a great embarrassment for Germany.

Looking ahead

Scott’s running another prediction contest, with cash prizes. This time it’s with Metaculus’ help, but he’s still just awarding prizes to the highest ranked forecasters. What the hell, man?

I have less free time these days, and forecasting is a lower priority now. But Metaculus is still a decent source of news, and the questions sometimes motivate me to learn about the world. I think a weekly habit of reading questions and updating forecasts would be useful, but I certainly don’t plan to sink much time into it.